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Development trend of copper material

source:www.czsqqtc.com Published time:2018-07-23
1, international copper consumption has maintained a certain growth rate, but the growth rate has dropped since 90s. The two countries play a major role in the growth of international copper consumption. One is the developed countries in North America and Europe, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Japan and so on. The other types are developing countries in Asia and South America, less developed countries and regions, such as China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Chile and other countries. The proportion of the two countries of the Shaw fee is roughly half. From the perspective of future development, copper consumption in the first category has basically stabilized and copper consumption has been growing at a low level, usually between 1% and 3%. The second countries have great potential for economic development and will maintain a relatively fast growth rate of copper consumption. Especially in China, India and Russia, copper consumption has increased rapidly in the past two years, and the cost has increased by more than 6% or 10%. The growth of copper consumption in the world is expected to slow slightly in the near future, but the long-term growth trend in the international market will not change.
2. the development of international copper mines is increasing, but the supply is still tense in the short term. In the context of the rapid rise in international copper price and the continuous tense supply of mineral resources, the price of copper concentrate is high, while the profits of the mining enterprises have risen sharply, and the mining enterprises are stimulating the development of the resources to increase the capacity rapidly. It is estimated that the global output will increase by more than 5.5% in 2007 and about 16 million 500 thousand tons of metal. Copper production in China's copper concentrate reached 830 thousand tons (express number), an increase of 9.97% over the previous year, accounting for about 5% of the world's total output. According to CRU related data, the development of copper resources in recent years is mainly concentrated in South America, and Chile and Peru are the main countries. And the development of copper mineral resources in Asia has also become a rapid growth trend, the main countries are China, India, Mongolia and other countries, and it is expected that most of the new production capacity in the world will be put into production next year. In 2008, the increase of copper concentrate production will be higher than this year, about 8%, and the output of copper metal is about 17 million 820 thousand tons. But we believe that although supply is still growing rapidly, it is not yet fast enough to reverse the shortage of copper concentrate in the short term. Any major emergencies that affect the production of copper will lead to a shortage of concentrate. Therefore, it is estimated that the global copper concentrate supply and demand situation is still not optimistic in the past two years. Domestic, although domestic mining enterprises increased investment, but still far from meeting domestic demand, it is expected that in 2008, China's copper concentrate imports will continue to maintain a certain range of growth.
3. the recent fluctuations in the international copper price are large: in the past few years, copper has shown two attributes, one is the attribute of the commodity and the other is the financial attribute. As a commodity, copper has been in a tight state in the past few years, and copper prices have kept rising. The high return on copper prices is undoubtedly attracting more money, which is seen as part of the portfolio, which can increase revenue and avoid the risk of inflation, and copper is given a financial attribute. After entering 2003, the copper price began to enter the rising channel, the average annual price rose from 1579 US dollars in 2003 to 6665 US dollars per ton in 2006, and the increase reached 322. In May 11, 2006, the copper price reached a historic high of 8800 us without / tons, and the financial attribute of copper was exaggerated to the extreme, and at the same time, it also bid farewell to 3000 US dollars / tonnes, And entered the era of high copper prices. After the strike, the wind, the fund, the stock, the American subprime mortgage, the Chinese demand and so on, the copper price began to fluctuate wide, and the fluctuation range was between $5500 ~8500. From the current situation, although the economic situation in the United States and some developed countries is not optimistic for some time, it has a certain inhibitory effect on copper price, but low stock and strong expectation to China's copper demand are still the main factors to support copper price. Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will remain at a higher price and fluctuate widely in the near future.
4. the pace of joint reorganization of the international large copper enterprises is accelerating. The monopoly of mineral resources is increasing. The wave of economic globalization has spread to various fields, and the copper industry is no exception. In order to adapt to the market competition, in order to adapt to the market competition, the pace of joint reorganization of large copper enterprises in foreign countries has accelerated in recent years, and the concentration of production has also been improved. The widening of the scope of merger, acquisition and management has become a trend, so we continue to see acquisitions, mergers and unions, and thus set up a larger scale of transnational corporations (most of which are selected and processed combined enterprises) so as to achieve large-scale operation and expand market share.

  

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